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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with an explosion in misinformation, leading to increased interest in methods to combat the failures in critical thinking which make such misinformation so powerful. In combatting misinformation, simply throwing uncontrolled argumentation at the problem is often counter-productive, partially because the means by which people evaluate arguments are highly subject to cognitive biases. Such biases which promote jumping to unwarranted conclusions have been shown to correlate with conspiratorial belief. We consider the use of Controlled Argumentation Dialogue Environments (CADEs) as a means to mitigate cognitive biases which contribute to belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories. We will discuss Warrant Game (WG) and Warrant Game for Analogies (WG-A), CADEs in which two arguers are presented with a divisive issue and two competing positions on that issue. They then compete by iteratively improving warrants for their arguments and attacking those of their opponents. The warrant, when made explicit, makes it easier to determine key features typically associated with argument strength and may reveal hidden assumptions or fundamental reasoning incompatibilities. By presenting an issue and positions which relate to conspiratorial thinking, CADEs may operate as an educational tool for breaking conspiratorial belief into core values and building cognitive skills.

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Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 around the world

Jon Roozenbeek, Claudia R. Schneider, Sarah Dryhurst … (2020)

Misinformation about COVID-19 is a major threat to public health. Using five national samples from the UK (n = 1050 and n = 1150), Ireland (n = 700), the USA (n = 700), Spain (n = 700) and Mexico (n = 700), we examine predictors of belief in the most common statements about the virus that contain misinformation. We also investigate the prevalence of belief in COVID-19 misinformation across different countries and the role of belief in such misinformation in predicting relevant health behaviours. We find that while public belief in misinformation about COVID-19 is not particularly common, a substantial proportion views this type of misinformation as highly reliable in each country surveyed. In addition, a small group of participants find common factual information about the virus highly unreliable. We also find that increased susceptibility to misinformation negatively affects people's self-reported compliance with public health guidance about COVID-19, as well as people's willingness to get vaccinated against the virus and to recommend the vaccine to vulnerable friends and family. Across all countries surveyed, we find that higher trust in scientists and having higher numeracy skills were associated with lower susceptibility to coronavirus-related misinformation. Taken together, these results demonstrate a clear link between susceptibility to misinformation and both vaccine hesitancy and a reduced likelihood to comply with health guidance measures, and suggest that interventions which aim to improve critical thinking and trust in science may be a promising avenue for future research.

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Conspiracy theories as barriers to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Daniel Romer, Kathleen Jamieson (2020)

Rationale The COVID-19 pandemic poses extraordinary challenges to public health. Objective Because the novel coronavirus is highly contagious, the widespread use of preventive measures such as masking, physical distancing, and eventually vaccination is needed to bring it under control. We hypothesized that accepting conspiracy theories that were circulating in mainstream and social media early in the COVID-19 pandemic in the US would be negatively related to the uptake of preventive behaviors and also of vaccination when a vaccine becomes available. Method A national probability survey of US adults (N = 1050) was conducted in the latter half of March 2020 and a follow-up with 840 of the same individuals in July 2020. The surveys assessed adoption of preventive measures recommended by public health authorities, vaccination intentions, conspiracy beliefs, perceptions of threat, belief about the safety of vaccines, political ideology, and media exposure patterns. Results Belief in three COVID-19-related conspiracy theories was highly stable across the two periods and inversely related to the (a) perceived threat of the pandemic, (b) taking of preventive actions, including wearing a face mask, (c) perceived safety of vaccination, and (d) intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Conspiracy beliefs in March predicted subsequent mask-wearing and vaccination intentions in July even after controlling for action taken and intentions in March. Although adopting preventive behaviors was predicted by political ideology and conservative media reliance, vaccination intentions were less related to political ideology. Mainstream television news use predicted adopting both preventive actions and vaccination. Conclusions Because belief in COVID-related conspiracy theories predicts resistance to both preventive behaviors and future vaccination for the virus, it will be critical to confront both conspiracy theories and vaccination misinformation to prevent further spread of the virus in the US. Reducing those barriers will require continued messaging by public health authorities on mainstream media and in particular on politically conservative outlets that have supported COVID-related conspiracy theories.