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      Adaptability of the city of Belo Horizonte to changes in rainfall patterns – a case study of the Ressaca Stream Basin Translated title: Adaptabilidade da cidade de Belo Horizonte frente às mudanças nos padrões de chuva – estudo de caso para a Bacia do Córrego Ressaca

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          Abstract

          ABSTRACT With the impermeabilization of urban soils and the increase in the frequency of heavy rains, conventional drainage systems have become obsolete, resulting in the occurrence of floods. In this sense, the aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of implementing urban drainage compensatory techniques in Ressaca stream basin - Belo Horizonte - MG. For this, scenarios were proposed that contemplate the current condition of occupation of the basin, verifying the possible techniques to be adopted, and a future situation, which envisages a new pattern of urban development and an equation IDF that incorporates non-stationarity conditions. The increase in peak flow rates observed when comparing the scenarios that contemplate the different perspectives of IDF, although quite expressive, could be attenuated with the implementation of techniques that contribute to reducing runoff volume. This study findings evidence the hydrological benefits that compensatory techniques could promote in the face of a scenario of changes in rainfall patterns.

          Translated abstract

          RESUMO Com a impermeabilização dos solos urbanos e o aumento da frequência de chuvas intensas, os sistemas convencionais de drenagem tornaram-se obsoletos, resultando na ocorrência de enchentes. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o impacto da implantação de técnicas compensatórias de drenagem urbana na bacia do córrego Ressaca - Belo Horizonte - MG. Para isso, foram propostos cenários que contemplam a condição atual de ocupação da bacia, verificando as possíveis técnicas a serem adotadas, e uma situação futura, que contempla um novo padrão de desenvolvimento urbano e uma equação IDF que incorpora condições de não estacionariedade. O aumento das vazões de pico observadas na comparação dos cenários que contemplam as diferentes perspectivas do IDF, embora bastante expressivo, poderia ser atenuado com a implantação de técnicas que contribuam para a redução do volume de escoamento. Os achados deste estudo evidenciam os benefícios hidrológicos que as técnicas compensatórias podem promover diante de um cenário de mudanças nos padrões de chuva.

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          Most cited references42

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          Time distribution of rainfall in heavy storms

          F. Huff (1967)
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            Hydrologic modeling of Low Impact Development systems at the urban catchment scale

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              Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics

              Abstract. The climate modelling community has trialled a large number of metrics for evaluating the temporal performance of general circulation models (GCMs), while very little attention has been given to the assessment of their spatial performance, which is equally important. This study evaluated the performance of 36 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in relation to their skills in simulating mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using state-of-the-art spatial metrics, SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman–Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling–Gupta efficiency, for the period 1961–2005. The multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were generated through the intelligent merging of simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature of selected GCMs employing random forest (RF) regression and simple mean (SM) techniques. The results indicated some differences in the ranks of GCMs for different spatial metrics. The overall ranks indicated NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 as the best GCMs in simulating the spatial patterns of mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan. MME precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature generated based on the best-performing GCMs showed more similarities with observed precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature compared to precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature simulated by individual GCMs. The MMEs developed using RF displayed better performance than the MMEs based on SM. Multiple spatial metrics have been used for the first time for selecting GCMs based on their capability to mimic the spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature. The approach proposed in the present study can be extended to any number of GCMs and climate variables and applicable to any region for the suitable selection of an ensemble of GCMs to reduce uncertainties in climate projections.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                rbrh
                RBRH
                RBRH
                Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos (Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil )
                1414-381X
                2318-0331
                2023
                : 28
                : e39
                Affiliations
                [02] Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais orgnameUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais Brazil
                [03] Belo Horizonte MG orgnameServiço Geológico do Brasil Brasil
                [01] Ouro Preto Minas Gerais orgnameUniversidade Federal de Ouro Preto Brazil
                Article
                S2318-03312023000100236 S2318-0331(23)02800000236
                10.1590/2318-0331.282320230053
                0499375b-07a8-4b81-a4af-b93e9b4ca5db

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 12 October 2023
                : 17 May 2023
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 43, Pages: 0
                Product

                SciELO Brazil

                Categories
                Scientific/Technical Article

                Climate change,Municipal management,Compensatory techniques,Urban resilience,Alterações climáticas,Gestão municipal,Técnicas compensatórias,Resiliência urbana

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