Perennial disaster patterns in Central Europe since 2000 and implications for hospital preparedness planning – a cross-sectional analysis

Abstract

The goal of this analysis is to describe seasonal disaster patterns in Central Europe in order to raise awareness and improve hospital disaster planning and resilience, particularly during peak events. Hospitals are essential pillars of a country’s critical infrastructure, vital for sustaining healthcare services and supporting public well-being—a key issue of national security. Disaster planning for hospitals is crucial to ensure their functionality under special circumstances. But the impact of climate change and seasonal variations in the utilization of hospital services are raising challenges. Therefore, the knowledge of perennial disaster patterns could help strengthen the resilience of hospitals. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the Emergency Events Database EM-DAT for disasters in Central Europe (Germany, France, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland) between January 2000 and December 2023. Time distribution of disasters, patterns and longitudinal trends, were analyzed to discuss impact on disaster preparedness in hospitals. Out of 474 events, 83% were associated with a natural hazard and only 80 events (17%) were of technological cause. While technological disasters were spread equally over the whole year, the vast majority of disasters related to natural hazards (n = 394), i.e. storms (n = 178, 45%), floods (n = 101, 26%), and extreme temperatures (n = 93, 24%) peaked during summer and winter months. Fewer disasters were registered during autumn and especially spring seasons. More than 50% of the technological disasters were categorized in the transport accident subgroup. Technological disasters were spread equally over the whole year. Looking at the three most common disaster types, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms are clearly dominating and cause over 90% of the disasters due to natural hazards in central Europe. Overall, the number of events per year fluctuates without a clear trend, only the technological events appear to become less frequent with 70% (n = 56) of the registered disasters occurring in the first half of the study period (2000–2011). An overlap of hospital admissions due to seasonal effects and catastrophic events, mainly triggered by disasters of natural cause in vulnerable periods may lead to a partial collapse of the health care system. To close knowledge gaps, future comprehensive data collection is vital for informed decision-making. Awareness and preparedness are key: an "all-hazards" approach to manage diverse, potentially simultaneous seasonal threats is often the most versatile strategy for hospital emergency planning.