Between Overtourism and Under-Tourism: Impacts, Implications, and Probable Solutions

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of infectious diseases including Avian Flu and severe acute respiratory syndrome (hereafter SARS) on international tourist arrivals in Asian countries using both single datasets and panel data procedures. An autoregressive moving average model together with an exogenous variables (ARMAX) model are used to estimate the effects of these diseases in each SARS- and Avian Flu-infected country, while a dynamic panel model is adopted to estimate the overall impact on the region of these two diseases. The empirical results from both approaches are consistent and indicate that the numbers of affected cases have a significant impact on SARS-affected countries but not on Avian Flu-affected countries. However, since the potential damage arising from the Avian Flu and subsequent pandemic influenza is much greater than that resulting from the SARS, the need to take the necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of Avian Flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action. Therefore, the empirical findings of this study could add to the knowledge regarding the relationship between tourism and crisis management, especially in so far as the management of transmissible diseases is concerned.