How to Handle Reasonable Scientific Disagreement: The Case of COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an overabundance of information about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, which is often false or misleading. Science communication can play a key role in the fight against mis- and disinformation. However, the attempt to separate facts from fiction and control the flow of information is hindered by the uncertainties surrounding the scientific understanding of SARS-CoV-2. In this chapter we discuss the recent debate between John Ioannidis and Nassim Taleb about the COVID-19 forecasts and the measures that should be taken to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our aim is to explain what distinguishes a ‘reasonable disagreement’ that may arise within science from misinformation or dissemination of false news. The Ioannidis-Taleb debate is susceptible to two readings: it can be seen as a methodological debate between scientists or as a debate about the values that can appropriately influence science policy making. This suggests a difficulty to say which is the basis of the disagreement. We show, however, that these two readings are equally supported under uncertainty and in particular that the second reading relates to the issue of how much transparency is needed to ensure the legitimacy of the values involved in decision-making.